The Mistake Threshold (MT)

By Joe Jenkins

If the Jets have taught us anything throughout this year’s playoffs it is this: Take everything you know about what makes teams successful in the regular season and cram it up your cram hole, La Fleur. We were all too busy with our sanctimonious proclamations of the NFL being a pass first, high octane league, that we forgot an all important rule of playoff football: The team with that stays within their mistake threshold wins.

What is a mistake threshold? So glad you asked because I just made it up!

Everyone and everything in life has a mistake threshold—that point at which a person, team, or relationship goes from being good enough to get away with a mistake to the juice just not being worth the squeeze. You’ll find it in love, life, jobs, and even sports. Think about it: A guy with a great personality and amazing looks is going to get away with a lot more with a woman than a guy like…well…me. I’m the guy in the leather jacket on the top of this page that clearly looks like he needs to toss a no-hitter just to get a date. If witty meathead and I go head to head, he's going to be able to screw up a lot more than me and still get the girl. It’s not the amount of mistakes you make; it’s the ability to stay within your mistake threshold.

Nobody will ever play a perfect game. Linemen are going to get nailed for holding or jumping early; quarterbacks are going to throw to the wrong team; running backs and wide receivers are going to put the ball on the ground; you get the idea. The key is to have the ability to overcome the mistakes you make. A dominant defense helps. An explosive offense helps even more since it can put a game out of reach, or keep a game from getting out put out of reach. A strong running game, can be from a situational standpoint, but doesn’t help expand a team’s mistake threshold unless they already hold the lead. It doesn’t help when playing from behind.

This is why the Jets are still playing right now. Not because they have more athletic talent than the teams they played, but because they have managed to not exceed the number of mistakes their style of play will allow. Their opponents, meanwhile, did the exact opposite with missed field goals, turnovers, and stupid penalties. The result? A 9-7 Jets team playing for the right to go to the Super Bowl.

Now, with me trekking all the way out on this limb to say that there is one definitive number that will conclude the winner of playoff football, perhaps we should break down the final four teams set to play tomorrow.

New York Jets MT#: 1.5-2.0
Make no mistake: The Jets do deserve to be where they are. Yes they pranced into the playoffs by beating teams that were mailing it in, but they did go on the road to beat two division champs—one of which was riding an 11 game winning streak.

The Jets do have a shutdown defense that helps take the pressure off Mark “don’t call me dirty” Sanchez. They’re good enough to afford him, or anyone else for that matter one to two purely bone headed plays per game that they can realistically overcome.

Even still, a run all day and play stiff defense with a rookie quarterback business model doesn’t translate well for shootouts or playing from behind. It took a lot of missed field goals and idiotic personal foul penalties to get the Jets to Indianapolis. Chances are the Jets won’t have that luxury against a precision team like the Colts. They’re going to have to toss a gem in all phases to stay in this one.

Then again, the Jets have been getting written off since week 16, so what the hell do I know?

Minnesota Vikings MT#: 2.5-3.5
The NFC teams are so much closer and this one took a lot of soul searching for me. 1) Because Brett Favre has seemingly made a career out of making an ass out of me—and more directly my Bears. 2) I am absolutely and inexplicably man-smitten with Jared Allen and all of his quirky antics. I love the mullet. I love the fact that he has openly admitted that he still giggles at the fact that he wears number 69. I love the outdoorsy, possibly psychotic, “Seat at the table” Steve Lattimer-esque attitude. Plus he’s just sick coming off the corner.

Add Adrian Peterson, Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin to the mix and the Vikings can afford a few pooch screwing moments.

Outside of the front 7, though, the Vikings defense is suspect at best. Their defensive backs should feel complimented by being called a liability.

Here’s what’s scary: Adrian Peterson can and will fumble. He didn’t last week. It’s coming. We also know that when Favre has a blow up game, it tends to draw comparisons to Hiroshima or Nagasaki.

How does the mistake prone tendencies of Minnesota’s offense actually factor into the mistake threshold?

Since New Orleans runs a passing offense as efficient as any other in the league, it plays right in to the weakness of the Minnesota defense. When strengths play into weaknesses, it will actually shrink one team’s threshold while expanding the other. The Vikings really can’t afford to have Favre go Chernobyl or for Peterson to get the drops if they want to keep it close.

New Orleans Saints MT#: 3.5-4.0
The two NFC teams are so close that really what this game boils down to a few key things because all of the things just mentioned about the Vikings defense also goes for the Saints. New Orleans is at home and playing in front of a crowd that will help pick them off the mat if they should soil the bed sheets; and—as stated above—they excel at exploiting a defense where Minnesota is weakest. On top of this, we haven’t seen Drew Brees throw up an absolute stinker in a while. Unlike the king sized Baby Ruth’s that Favre tends to leave in the swimming pool at Bushwood, Brees’ seem to be a bit more of the fun sized variety.

One other guy to factor in here is Reggie Bush. Granted he’s only shown flashes of any redeeming value, but think of him as the Jay Buhner of football: He’s not going to get the ball in play every time, but he’s good for a big home run every now and again.

Indianapolis Colts – MT#: Possibly infinity
Peyton Manning is a surgeon that doesn’t need a mistake threshold because he almost never makes them; and he does awesome commercials with Justin Timberlake. Has there ever been a more lethal combination? I submit that there has not! The Colts also haven’t lost when he’s played the entire game since last year. They can run the ball effectively, and they can play adequate defense, they have play making receivers which includes their tight end.

To put Indianapolis in real life terms, he’s the guy you work with that could get caught sleeping with your bosses wife, sexually harass the secretary and punch the intern in the face all while getting voted employee of the month.

Ahhh, to be the Colts…

The Hawk and The Hall

By Joe Jenkins

People change. Sometimes for the better; sometimes for the worse, but people change.

When I was 6 I wanted to be a Transformer. By the time I was 18 I wanted to be a journalist. Now I’m 28 and all I want to be is incredibly wealthy and retired.

On a very quick and sentimental note, I’d like to think most people are always trying to change for the better. I’d really like to think that most of the people around me have. If I might quote from the book of Balboa, chapter 4 verse 33: “If I can change; and you can change, everybody can change!”

Funny thing though. Stats don’t change. Not even a little. They’re locked in. Walter Payton still ended his career with 16,726 yards in 1987. Hack Wilson still drove in 191 RBI and hit 56 home runs in 1930.

It’s for this reason that I can’t just sit back and be happy that Andre Dawson finally got inducted into Cooperstown today. Is it nice? You bet…

…but just because it’s nice doesn’t make it right. Take a quick peek at this:
In 21 seasons, all The Hawk did was bat .279 jack 438 home runs (for you younger readers, this was a very high number before players starting eating Winstrol brownies.); steal 314 bases; total over 2,700 hits; 8 Gold Gloves and All-Star selections; winner of Rookie of the Year in 1977 and NL MVP in 1987 (runner up in 1981 and 1983).

Okay, on the surface a lot of these numbers look like they need to be filed under “pretty good” and not quite “Cooperstown worthy.” On paper I agree, but consider this:
Dawson spent the better part of the ‘80’s and going into the early ‘90’s as one of the most feared hitters in the National League. Remember: Dawson was hitting between 20-30 home runs a season when that was a lot. For those that remember seeing him play, Dawson threw absolute peas from any of the three outfield positions. Now, prepare yourself while I blow your mind:
Those 400 home runs and those 300 stolen bases? There’s a list of other people that have done that: Barry Bonds... and Willie Mays… I am now done with the list… …and spooling up my indignant tirade.

Can somebody please tell me why voters waited 8 whole years to vote in a guy that has compiled career numbers that have only been eclipsed by two of the greatest baseball players of all time?!! (Don’t start on the whole Barry Bonds thing…not the venue.) Three guys!! EVER!! One of them widely considered to be one of the top two players…EVER!! How is this even possible?! The Hawk didn’t get any better over the last 8 years did he??!! Why now??!! Why do I keep using multiple punctuations??

I’ll tell ya why!! 1) Because I wrote it to be grammatically correct, and the proper levels of rage were simply not conveyed. 2) Dawson didn’t get in until now because the whole idiotic system is just plain screwed up, that’s why!!

Luckily for you folks, along with all of this very wordy babbling, I have come up with a solution. I’m a fixer. It’s what I do. Solving life’s little problems with reasonable and rational remedies makes me feel smexy (that’s smart and sexy, gang). I figure these things will come in handy when I’m named the sports czar of North America. And on the day after instituting my system of promotion and relegation to the BCS, this is the process that will clean up the steaming pile of poo that is the Baseball Hall of Fame induction process: Take (some) of the power away from the problem.

A quick lesson for those of you that never worked in the sports industry:

Think back to your high school days. Remember the geek that obsessed over baseball and knew every stat? You know the guy that would jump into a conversation to remind you how many times Frank Viola threw more than six innings on weekdays after the passing of the Summer Solstice? No, no, no, not the skinny, hairy, yet strangely handsome fellow that just won’t let his sideburns go, that’s me. The other guy. Yeah…him… he became a sports writer, too.

Here’s what’s scary: This guy has a couple hundred friends that call themselves the Baseball Writers Association of America. These guys stalk locker rooms and clubhouses clinging to an antiquated notion that they alone are responsible for protecting the sanctity of baseball like they belong in a Dan Brown novel. They do this by holding the keys to Cooperstown. If they hold a grudge, you’re out. If they think you were kind of ornery in the locker room after a loss? You might not get voted for. If an older beat writer from Boston hasn’t ever heard of a player from San Diego, he won’t get the vote. I’m not kidding about any of this.

So instead of just putting the players through a screening process, I say we put the writer’s through a test to see if they still have their heads about them. Those that carry sufficient knowledge and the clarity of mind to judge players based on their ability and not if they stole a writer’s lollipop in elementary school will keep their vote. That vote will count for 1/3 of the voting process.

So where does the other 2/3 of the vote come from? So glad you asked! (You didn’t ask? Well, I’m going to keep writing…so…don’t make this awkward.)

Players know Players

The good news is, there’s a bit of a failsafe in place if a player gets screwed by the writers. Living Hall of Famers, a.k.a “The Veteran’s Committee.” The bad news is “The Veteran’s Committee” treats the Hall of Fame more like a fraternity and a popularity contest than the writers do.
Same deal here. Pass a screening…keep your vote... but it only counts as 1/3 of the total process.
The Honor is for the player. Cooperstown is for the fans.

Look, we’re the ones that elevate them to rock star status. We’re the ones that enable them to make millions, and we’re the ones that get outraged when they aren’t voted in, and we’re the ones that visit the museum in the first place. Remind me why we don’t have a say as to who gets in? The fan vote portion would be simple. Every year mlb.com offers a 24 hour window for fans to sign on and register for Hall of Fame voting. Each year, 500 registrants are randomly selected to select from the ballot. They vote and it counts for the final 1/3. A player still needs 75% total to get in, but can’t have any one category dip below 55%. This should prevent any fan uprisings from trying to get a truly undeserving player in.

For the Pete Rose’s and the “Shoeless” Joe’s of the world, the solution is simple. Under the new system, banned players get one shot. If you’re voted in, good for you; if not, there’s the door. Next time don’t break the rules.

Finally, no more 15 years. After the 5 year waiting period, everybody gets 10 years as long as they maintain 25% of the vote. At the end of the day, sometimes we need a little time to sit back and realize just how good somebody really was, but it sure as hell doesn’t take 20 years for that to happen.

And there you have it:
More democracy. More change.
Change is a good thing…
…but I still kind of want to be a Transformer…

The Learning Curve of a Decade

By Joe Jenkins

“When I am grown to a man’s state I shall be very proud and great. And tell the other girls and boys not to meddle with my toys.”
--Robert Louis Stevenson

Everybody told me it would happen. I just didn’t want to listen. So to my elders that promised me that one day I would wake up and be something resembling an adult, you were right. Feel free to send all “I told you so’s” here.

As the ball was dropping to close out 1999, we all closed our eyes and winced at the possible pain that would result from Y2K. While I was distracted with the lack of explosions, financial crisis, and the marvel of just how many 5 gallon jugs of water and cases of Spaghetti-O’s were needlessly purchased, nobody told me that this would be the precise moment when somebody would stomp on the gas pedal of my life, and leave me just trying to catch up. Now, in what seems like mere moments after I realized that Y2K was a non factor, my teenage angst can’t even be seen in my rear-view mirror and I’m pushing 30. What the hell could I have possibly learned over the course of 10 years that seems more like 10 seconds?

Let’s see here…

World/News/Politics

*I learned—within the first few seconds of this decade—that I shouldn’t over react to every potential scare that the media brings to our attention. Sometimes what we perceive to be the big problem really isn’t that big of a deal. At least fear mongers got to dust off their cold war bomb shelters! Thanks Y2K!

*I learned that it doesn’t necessarily matter how many people vote for a guy to be President of the United States, it matters more where they vote for him…

*I learned that one fateful day in September can stand as a reminder that our day-to-day safety is a luxury not to be taken for granted. I learned that there are much better people than me out there that are willing to sacrifice themselves for a greater good. I learned that it is less important to wonder “Who could do such a thing?” than it is to be aware that there are people who simply will. I learned just how quickly we can set aside our differences when we really want to. I then learned how quickly we can forget about all of that and return to a life of arguing about the chasm that stands between two relatively similar political views.

*I learned that starting wars is pretty easy. I learned that claiming that the Mission was accomplished is pretty easy, too. I’m now very sadly aware that the ability to end a war is much harder than we were lead to believe.

*We learned that William Mark Felt was “Deep Throat.” Turns out he was just as flawed as you and I and not the superhero I had made him out to be. He came clean as his health was fading in hopes to spin a few dollars for his family out of some book deals. I guess sometimes the perceived truth we spend time pursuing can be a lot more romantic than the unfiltered reality.

*I learned that there are enough people in this country that are open minded enough to listen to what a man is saying, and elect him to the highest office, regardless of his race.

Pop culture/Entertainment

*I learned that I can use reality TV stars and Lindsay Lohan as a barometer for just how normal I really am. The fewer parallels I can draw between myself and anyone that refers to himself as “The Situation,” the better.

*I learned that for every Ted Bundy that nobody expected to be a killer, there’s a Phil Spector, where everyone should’ve known it just by looking at the guy.

*I’ve learned that there’s an app for that…and by “that,” I mean everything. If you need an app to evaluate your dietary needs based on the odor of your flatulence, I’m pretty sure there’s an app for that. If there’s not, I have friends that have established a definite need. For the good of mankind, we need to get this lined up.

*I’ve learned that no man can come out of a break up stronger than Justin Timberlake. JT bailed on Britney; showed Janet Jackson’s Boobie; showed us he’s a pretty good actor; made his solo music good enough to make us forget about N’Sync; and joined the ranks the pantheon of “Legendary SNL hosts” along with Alec Baldwin, John Goodman, and Christopher Walken. Oh yeah, and his list of post-Britney women reads like a “women we’d all wish could do Playboy but probably never will” list. I am now convinced that if JT went swimming in a 50 year old septic tank, Calvin Klein would try to bottle the smell for his latest fragrance. That’s the kind of pull this guy has now.

*FaceBook, MySpace, Twitter, etc. have changed the way we view the world. Celebrities, politicians, athletes and standard issue private citizens no longer need journalists or newspapers to convey their message. As a result, we no longer care that our news is “correct” or “accurate,” just that it is the latest information. It is beyond my abilities to properly describe the impact that this will continue to have on our country and the world.

*I watched as “LOL” ceased to be an abbreviation, and became punctuation. It has now attained comma or period-like status. I’m still learning how disheartening this is for me…

*I learned that paying for commercial free radio is worth every penny.

*I learned that a pothead screaming things like “Charlie Murphy!” and muppets teaching kids about STDs can make you laugh so hard you’ll shoot Easy-Mac out of your nose.

*I learned that when people responsible for so many of the sights, songs, sounds and quotes of your youth die (Michael Jackson, John Hughes, etc.), you get a little bit older whether you like it or not…

Sports

*Most people learned about Tom Brady… (Some of us knew him from his Michigan days, but let’s not nitpick here…). Most people outside of New England and Michigan now just wish he’d go away.

*I learned that retiring from the NFL doesn’t mean that you’ll actually stop playing.

*I learned that baseball curses are alive in well in 2003. One involving a Billy Goat that is of particular pain for me…
…only to learn the following year that the cure for all of them is to assemble a group of people that very simply don’t care.

*I learned that in order to properly make a movie about Barry Bonds, you’d need to cast Chris Rock for the Pirates years, and Michael Clarke Duncan for the Giants years.

*I learned that it’s only when a consensus dick-head started toppling “sacred” records that baseball started caring about steroids.

*I learned being a world class golfer doesn’t automatically make you a world class human being…I’m still trying to learn if that last part is even any of my business.

*I learned that defense may WIN championships, but it only takes one Rex Grossman to cancel it out.

*I’m beginning to learn that Chicago might really be where quarterbacks go to die. (I’m even factoring in Cutler’s Minnesota performance here. You can’t treat me to one steak dinner and expect me to accept you as my girlfriend…)

*I learned that the days of all the guys getting together “super bowl party-style” on a Saturday night to watch the big pay-per-view fight is now reserved for MMA and not boxing.

*I learned that with the NFL being specifically designed to steer every team toward 8-8, New England, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh are just insanely good.

*I learned that there’s nothing more amazing than to have gone so far only to find myself standing in the exact same place: I spent the last October (okay…November) of the decade the same way I spent the first: Watching those damn Yankees win the World Series.

Personal

*I learned that when you chase your dreams for your whole life, you may not be thrilled with the way they look when you catch them.

*I learned that “one more last drink” at the bar can cost a lot more than $5…

*I learned that getting broken up with is pretty painful…

*I learned that breaking up with someone is significantly worse…

*I learned that it’s not the capacity to drink that diminishes with age; it’s the ability to recover.

*I learned that two people can truly love each other and have completely different definitions of what that really means. As intellectual and heady as I like to be, I still haven’t learned too much about why this is. I have, however, learned that Don Henley was right back in the ‘90’s when he told us that at the heart of the matter lies forgiveness.

*I’m learning as I write this that I have left a lot out. Fill in what you feel I have missed.

*I learned that I can’t ever start completely over—and why would I after all that I’ve learned?

*I’ve learned that the path ahead of me is more uncertain than it has been in years…
and I’ve learned that I can’t wait to see what happens next…

Happy New Year/New Decade everyone.

The BCS and the Soccer System

by Joe Jenkins

The BCS and the Soccer System

Wow…
…and here I am just trying to discuss the Earth-shattering importance of college football…
Writing about the BCS has become a bit of a cliché. It’s been debated, re-debated, bashed, praised, questioned, rumored, tweaked, protested, and potentially brought in front of a court of law on anti-trust charges so many times that it’s all been worn down into two distinct camps: Those that demand a playoff system; and those that claim that the regular season is the playoff and a bracketed playoff system would devalue the regular season.

Sooooo….
Where does this leave us? What’s the point in rehashing something that’s been—well—hashed…repeatedly…to death?

I suppose we have to bring something new to the table.

Look, we all know the BCS supporters are full of crap because their argument is just plain wrong. With every other major sport using some variation on the standard bracketed elimination system, each one stands as a turd in the punch bowl of the BCS argument. This is a lot of turds. Too many turds to ignore. One might say that only one would be too many. Yet every year, we’re stuck staring at the same turdy punch! (Is turdy a word? I’m leaning toward no. But if college football can make up a “playoff system” using only polls and computers, I can make up words like “turdy” to describe it. I might one day be inclined to call it “supercraptastic.” Stay tuned…)

Here’s the bad news:
Because we keep feeding the machine, the BCS probably won’t be going anywhere for a long time. I wrote a few years ago that the only way to really stop the BCS beast was to stop watching it…
…and I actually tried it…

…and by Tuesday of Bowl Week I had achieved Ewan McGregor in Trainspotting levels of withdrawal. Would I have dove into that toilet for my football suppository? Hard to tell, but I’m pretty sure there was a moment during the Capital One Bowl where I was caught licking my television screen like someone had just told me that the schnozberries taste like schnozberries. It was my first bowl season with HD. Don’t judge me.

So what does all of this mean?

It means we need to get off this playoff obsession for the time being and work on making the best out of a supercraptastic situation.

The truth is a few changes to the BCS system would make it pretty easy to make most college football pretty satisfied with the outcome. The key isn’t to focus with only working over the top, but also tweaking the bottom. I’ll wait while your mind works through all the potentially dirty possibilities of that last statement…

…Good?

…okay…

We can all agree that the BCS needs a plus one format in which the winners of the top two bowls meet in the BCS championship so we can at least pretend that the whole thing is decided on the field. Let’s be honest, the 2009 season was an absolute anomaly with 5 undefeated teams. A top 4 format works 99 times out of 100.

This isn’t the real problem from the people clamoring at the bottom. As a fan of a non-BCS FBS school, I can tell you that the rallying cry from the bottom up to the middle is one word: “Inclusion,” and I don’t just mean a pity invite to a BCS bowl. Every fan wants to go into the season knowing that their team at least has a chance to one day compete for the BCS/”National Championship.” Right now that doesn’t exist and the travesty that took place with TCU getting paired against Boise State is the glaring proof.

The answer to the inclusion problem lies with a very different sport that goes by the same name roughly 3,000 miles away.

Premier League soccer relegates its bottom feeders to a different league and in turn promotes the top performers from the Football League into its ranks. It, in effect, keeps the league constantly operating at a competitive zenith at all times.

The rules to the soccer system would be simple: Any champion of a non-BCS conference (MAC, MWC, C-USA, Sun Belt, WAC) that wins its bowl game would be issued an invitation to the BCS conference that makes the most geographic sense. They would replace the team with the worst winning percentage over a 3 year average. This not only prevents the new entries from being one and done, it also protects quality teams that throw up a one year stinker due to injuries or the discovery of flip cup and beer pong tournaments.

Picture a college football world in which no conference has a concrete alignment. Imagine a season in which teams like Northwestern and Indiana aren’t just playing out the string with a 2-7 record in November, they’re playing for their Big Ten lives. What would the interest level be in a Baylor vs. Iowa State game in which the loser could potentially spend the next season slumming it in Conference USA?

Better yet, Imagine TCU proving that they are the best team in the country instead of everyone guessing. Under the soccer system, the Horned Frogs would’ve been playing in the Big 12 this year thanks to their conference championship and victory over Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl last year.

The soccer system also allows for stiffer penalties for the teams committing egregious NCAA violations. So the next time USC wants to pay its players or Michigan wants to enforce sweatshop hours on its players to get to the top, they can sleep at night knowing that they will spend the next three years relegated to one of their non-BCS counterparts—a move that would cost a major program millions in television, bowl and advertising revenues. Likewise, a non-BCS school caught committing the same crimes would be ineligible for promotion to the BCS promised land. Who wants to cheat now?

How is it that we have completely ignored this model?

How would this model do anything but add value to the regular season from top to bottom?
Who could possibly hate this system?

How is it that there wasn’t a single freaking doctor in attendance to attend to Creed after Drago turned his skull to pumice in Rocky IV?

Why am I continuing to ask questions when nobody can answer me?

Aside from the complete lack of medical staff on hand for the Creed, Drago fight, the soccer system isn’t a quantum leap from the current BCS structure! It’s not vast sweeping changes that could potentially alter the entire landscape of college football as we know it. Its tweaks! Its subtle changes for the better. It’s parceling out hopes and dreams to teams that currently don’t have it. It’s promoting greater competition at every level of major college football regardless of record or conference standing.

Now… While we’re talking about all the important things…can we touch on getting the Cubs to the World Series?

Welcome Our Feature Writer; Joe Jenkins

As you know, I razzed Joe Jenkins a little in a previous blog about not writing enough. Well not only did it work, but he will be a feature writer here at IWEWIW! I'm so excited.

Joe is a professional journalist and he was a sports columnist for a paper in upstate NY. He's funny, insightful, and brilliant and the best part is, I rarely agree with him. He's my friend and former co-worker and I know a few members of his family. The Jenkins family is a huge sports family and although i've never been invited to thanksgiving dinner at their home, i'm sure that the conversations are colorful. Bears fans, Bills fans, Jets fans, Cubs fans, Pistons fans and God knows what else has provide world-class entertainment.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Welcome, Mr. Joe Jenkins.