The Mistake Threshold (MT)

By Joe Jenkins

If the Jets have taught us anything throughout this year’s playoffs it is this: Take everything you know about what makes teams successful in the regular season and cram it up your cram hole, La Fleur. We were all too busy with our sanctimonious proclamations of the NFL being a pass first, high octane league, that we forgot an all important rule of playoff football: The team with that stays within their mistake threshold wins.

What is a mistake threshold? So glad you asked because I just made it up!

Everyone and everything in life has a mistake threshold—that point at which a person, team, or relationship goes from being good enough to get away with a mistake to the juice just not being worth the squeeze. You’ll find it in love, life, jobs, and even sports. Think about it: A guy with a great personality and amazing looks is going to get away with a lot more with a woman than a guy like…well…me. I’m the guy in the leather jacket on the top of this page that clearly looks like he needs to toss a no-hitter just to get a date. If witty meathead and I go head to head, he's going to be able to screw up a lot more than me and still get the girl. It’s not the amount of mistakes you make; it’s the ability to stay within your mistake threshold.

Nobody will ever play a perfect game. Linemen are going to get nailed for holding or jumping early; quarterbacks are going to throw to the wrong team; running backs and wide receivers are going to put the ball on the ground; you get the idea. The key is to have the ability to overcome the mistakes you make. A dominant defense helps. An explosive offense helps even more since it can put a game out of reach, or keep a game from getting out put out of reach. A strong running game, can be from a situational standpoint, but doesn’t help expand a team’s mistake threshold unless they already hold the lead. It doesn’t help when playing from behind.

This is why the Jets are still playing right now. Not because they have more athletic talent than the teams they played, but because they have managed to not exceed the number of mistakes their style of play will allow. Their opponents, meanwhile, did the exact opposite with missed field goals, turnovers, and stupid penalties. The result? A 9-7 Jets team playing for the right to go to the Super Bowl.

Now, with me trekking all the way out on this limb to say that there is one definitive number that will conclude the winner of playoff football, perhaps we should break down the final four teams set to play tomorrow.

New York Jets MT#: 1.5-2.0
Make no mistake: The Jets do deserve to be where they are. Yes they pranced into the playoffs by beating teams that were mailing it in, but they did go on the road to beat two division champs—one of which was riding an 11 game winning streak.

The Jets do have a shutdown defense that helps take the pressure off Mark “don’t call me dirty” Sanchez. They’re good enough to afford him, or anyone else for that matter one to two purely bone headed plays per game that they can realistically overcome.

Even still, a run all day and play stiff defense with a rookie quarterback business model doesn’t translate well for shootouts or playing from behind. It took a lot of missed field goals and idiotic personal foul penalties to get the Jets to Indianapolis. Chances are the Jets won’t have that luxury against a precision team like the Colts. They’re going to have to toss a gem in all phases to stay in this one.

Then again, the Jets have been getting written off since week 16, so what the hell do I know?

Minnesota Vikings MT#: 2.5-3.5
The NFC teams are so much closer and this one took a lot of soul searching for me. 1) Because Brett Favre has seemingly made a career out of making an ass out of me—and more directly my Bears. 2) I am absolutely and inexplicably man-smitten with Jared Allen and all of his quirky antics. I love the mullet. I love the fact that he has openly admitted that he still giggles at the fact that he wears number 69. I love the outdoorsy, possibly psychotic, “Seat at the table” Steve Lattimer-esque attitude. Plus he’s just sick coming off the corner.

Add Adrian Peterson, Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin to the mix and the Vikings can afford a few pooch screwing moments.

Outside of the front 7, though, the Vikings defense is suspect at best. Their defensive backs should feel complimented by being called a liability.

Here’s what’s scary: Adrian Peterson can and will fumble. He didn’t last week. It’s coming. We also know that when Favre has a blow up game, it tends to draw comparisons to Hiroshima or Nagasaki.

How does the mistake prone tendencies of Minnesota’s offense actually factor into the mistake threshold?

Since New Orleans runs a passing offense as efficient as any other in the league, it plays right in to the weakness of the Minnesota defense. When strengths play into weaknesses, it will actually shrink one team’s threshold while expanding the other. The Vikings really can’t afford to have Favre go Chernobyl or for Peterson to get the drops if they want to keep it close.

New Orleans Saints MT#: 3.5-4.0
The two NFC teams are so close that really what this game boils down to a few key things because all of the things just mentioned about the Vikings defense also goes for the Saints. New Orleans is at home and playing in front of a crowd that will help pick them off the mat if they should soil the bed sheets; and—as stated above—they excel at exploiting a defense where Minnesota is weakest. On top of this, we haven’t seen Drew Brees throw up an absolute stinker in a while. Unlike the king sized Baby Ruth’s that Favre tends to leave in the swimming pool at Bushwood, Brees’ seem to be a bit more of the fun sized variety.

One other guy to factor in here is Reggie Bush. Granted he’s only shown flashes of any redeeming value, but think of him as the Jay Buhner of football: He’s not going to get the ball in play every time, but he’s good for a big home run every now and again.

Indianapolis Colts – MT#: Possibly infinity
Peyton Manning is a surgeon that doesn’t need a mistake threshold because he almost never makes them; and he does awesome commercials with Justin Timberlake. Has there ever been a more lethal combination? I submit that there has not! The Colts also haven’t lost when he’s played the entire game since last year. They can run the ball effectively, and they can play adequate defense, they have play making receivers which includes their tight end.

To put Indianapolis in real life terms, he’s the guy you work with that could get caught sleeping with your bosses wife, sexually harass the secretary and punch the intern in the face all while getting voted employee of the month.

Ahhh, to be the Colts…